Brasil tem 93% de chances de chegar à Copa
Se você está preocupado com a seqüência de pedreiras que vem por aí na seleção brasileira, acalme-se. Pode até bater palma como Dunga faz na foto. Mesmo sabendo dos próximos jogos (Uruguai, fora, Paraguai, em casa, e Argentina, fora), a matemática indica que o Brasil tem 93% de chances de se classificar entre os quatro primeiros colocados e garantir a passagem direta para a Copa do Mundo. É o que diz o especialista em números no futebol Tristão Garcia.
A equipe de Dunga fica só atrás do líder Paraguai, que tem 99%. Os “hermanos”, mesmo após a sapatada contra a Bolívia, mantém 70% de chances, ainda atrás do Chile, do técnico Bielsa e da estrela Valdivia, que já acumula 80% de possibilidades. Completam a lista o Uruguai, com 44%, a Colômbia, com 6%, o Equador, com 4%, a Venezuela, com 3% e a Bolívia, com 1%. O Peru é único eliminado segundo o levantamento de Tristão.
“Tudo se encaminha para a repetição dos classificados, trocando o Equador da última Copa pelo Chile”, diz Tristão.
Vale destacar que as estatísticas levam em conta as chances de classificação direta para a Copa do Mundo. A vaga que passa pela repescagem não entra no levantamento de Tristão.
Os números ainda revelam outra curiosidade. O Brasil é o time que menos perdeu, com apenas 8% de derrotas, o que equivale a um revés. Os comandados de Dunga também são responsáveis pela melhor defesa das eliminatórias, com cinco gols tomados. Peru é o pior, com 26. O ataque verde e amarelo é o segundo melhor, com 19 gols, dois a menos que o líder em balançar as redes, Uruguai.
Portanto, os oposicionistas de Dunga devem, ao que tudo indica, ter de engolir uma classificação brasileira até mesmo antecipada para a Copa do Mundo.
Foto: AFP
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